Executive Pre-Tet Lunch | Vietnam’s Economic Prospects
in the Year of the Snake
16th January, 2025
At this year’s Executive Pre-Tet Lunch, hosted by the Caravelle Saigon, “What Can We Expect in 2025”, we were joined by the following panel:
- Dominic Scriven, Chairman – Dragon Capital Group Limited (Speaker)
- Richard Burrage, Board Advisor and Founder – Cimigo (Moderator)
The main highlight of the Executive Pre-Tet Lunch was the presentation and discussion led by Dominic Scriven, who provided insights into Vietnam’s economic prospects. Dominic began by discussing the significance of 2025, which marks 50 years since the reunification of Vietnam. He highlighted the government’s ambitious plans for digitalization, infrastructure development, and administrative reforms, known as the “Wasam” initiative.
Dominic delved into the details of Vietnam’s economic metrics, noting that the country’s GDP growth target for 2025 is 7.5%, with the Prime Minister aiming to push it even higher to 8%. He explained that the government’s strategy is to increase public sector investment, which is expected to have a catalytic effect on private sector investment and help lower the incremental capital output ratio (ICOR).
The discussion then shifted to the domestic and international economic impact, with Richard Burrage, moderating the Q&A session. The audience raised questions about the gap between macroeconomic data and domestic consumption, with Dominic acknowledging that consumer-facing companies had seen slower-than-expected recovery in 2022.
Regarding the equity market, Dominic noted that while the market had seen a 9% increase in 2022, foreign investors had been net sellers, withdrawing around $3.5 billion. He attributed this to a lack of positive catalysts and the currency pressures faced by Vietnam.
Richard and Dominic also addressed the potential for Vietnam to be upgraded to emerging market status, which Dominic believed was unlikely to happen this year but could be a possibility in the coming years. He emphasized the importance of improving institutional development, transparency, and predictability in the business environment to attract more foreign investment.
Dominic and Richard also discussed the challenges of achieving the government’s high growth targets, particularly in light of the demographic shifts and aging population that Vietnam is facing. They highlighted the need for strategic planning and the development of international financial centers to support the country’s economic aspirations.
Overall, the session by Dominic and Richard provided a comprehensive and insightful analysis of Vietnam’s economic landscape, the government’s reform agenda, and the potential opportunities and challenges facing the country in the coming years.
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